Silver Price Surge: What's Next?

Silver is having a remarkable year, with its price rising by 161% year-on-year. It briefly reached an all-time high of $121.62 per ounce in January 2026 before experiencing a correction. On Tuesday, March 10, silver is testing $90 per ounce for the third consecutive gaining session.

The question on everyone's mind is whether the paper pricing mechanism has finally broken or if this is just a temporary squeeze. In this article, we will analyze the silver chart, examine the COMEX delivery situation, and compile silver price predictions from Wall Street and independent analysts for the rest of 2026.

Silver Technical Analysis: The Same Consolidation, A Key Breakout Zone

Silver has been rising for the third session in a row, bouncing from local lows near $80 and drawing strength from global geopolitical tensions. The silver price remains within the same consolidation channel it has held since early February. The lower boundary of this range sits near $70 per ounce, while the upper boundary is the local peak zone between $90 and $94.

The market is now at a decision point. If the consolidation breaks upward, silver has a clear path toward the all-time high zone near $120, with no meaningful technical resistance between $94 and that level. If it breaks downward, the target is the 200-day EMA near $60, which forms a substantial support zone that would likely attract significant buying.

Why Silver Is Going Up? Geopolitics and the Physical Squeeze

The immediate catalyst for this week's three-session recovery is geopolitical tension. The US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz situation remain unresolved, and every escalation sends a fresh wave of safe-haven demand into precious metals. Gold has already climbed above $5,400, and silver is following.

But the deeper structural story sits in the COMEX vaults. In just seven days in January, 33.45 million ounces of silver were physically withdrawn for delivery, roughly 26% of COMEX's entire registered inventory. By the end of February, registered silver stocks had fallen to approximately 86.1 million ounces, a 31% decline from levels seen just months earlier.

The Paper vs. Physical Divide: Shanghai vs. COMEX

One of the most significant technical developments in silver markets is the divergence between Eastern and Western pricing. Silver is already trading near $87 in Shanghai, while the Western COMEX price lags behind. This gap is driven by physical demand cracking the paper market and relentless industrial buying from Chinese manufacturers.

Silver Price Predictions 2026: The Full Spectrum

The forecast range for silver in 2026 is as extraordinary as its recent price action. At the conservative end, JP Morgan forecasts an average price of $81 per ounce, based on tight supply and strong demand. Bank of America's Michael Widmer maintains his $135-$309 target for 2026, based on gold-to-silver ratio compression and supply constraints.

Independent analysts project $185-$260 based on physical shortage theses and Eastern market control of price discovery. My technical analysis shows $120 as the first major target if silver breaks above $94, with $136 as the full Fibonacci extension target.

FAQ, Silver Price Analysis

The institutional range runs from JP Morgan's $81 average to Bank of America's $309 bull case. Independent analysts project $185-$260 based on physical shortage theses and Eastern market control of price discovery. Silver is trading at $88.80 per ounce on Tuesday, March 10, up 2% on the day and extending a three-session recovery from the $80 local low.

As shown on my chart, a break below the $70 lower consolidation boundary opens the path to the 200-day EMA near $60, which forms the key support zone. JP Morgan's Kolanovic warns of a potential crash to $50 if speculative positioning unwinds before fundamentals catch up.

Looking Ahead

The silver market is at a critical juncture. With the paper pricing mechanism potentially broken and physical demand driving the price, we can expect significant price movements in the coming months. As the market continues to evolve, it's essential to stay informed and adapt to changing circumstances. With the right analysis and insights, investors can make informed decisions and navigate the complex world of silver trading.