Bitcoin's Next Major Move: Clues from Gold Fractals, Cost Basis Heatmap, and Long-Term Moving Averages

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating as gold leads, a pattern seen before past BTC rallies. The $84,000–$85,000 range and the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) are key levels to watch. Bitcoin failed to rise above the $90,000 mark in December, with sharp rejections toward the $85,000-87,000 area on each attempt. This sideways price action followed a sharp pullback of more than 30% from Bitcoin’s October all-time high above the $126,000 mark.

Bitcoin's Consolidation Resembles Past Patterns

Bitcoin’s consolidation resembles pauses seen in previous four-year cycle downtrends, when its price often moved sideways for extended periods before establishing a clearer trend, according to multiple analysts. With 2026 approaching, is this boring BTC range about to give way to a major breakout or a deeper correction?

Gold and Silver Leading the Way

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) tend to move first after major market stress, while Bitcoin lags, according to analyst Bull Theory. For instance, the precious metals rallied during the May-August 2020 period, but Bitcoin traded inside the $9,000-12,000 range in the same period. A similar pattern was visible as of December 2025, with gold and silver reaching their respective all-time highs while Bitcoin consolidated, hinting that the top cryptocurrency may benefit from delayed risk rotation just like it did after August 2020.

Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap

The next chart to watch in 2026 is Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap, which shows where large portions of BTC supply were accumulated across different price levels. As of December, the heatmap highlighted a dense supply cluster of more than 940,000 BTC around the $84,000–$85,000 range, the largest concentration recorded since 2020. In the past, such supply zones appeared ahead of strong Bitcoin uptrends.

Bitcoin Mining and Hash Rate

Bitcoin mining has come under pressure as rising energy costs squeeze margins, forcing some miners to rely on debt or equity-linked financing to stay liquid. Against this backdrop, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate has slipped after peaking in late October, raising concerns about miner stress. However, analysts at VanEck view the trend differently, with crypto research head Matt Sigel saying miner capitulation has historically acted as a “bullish contrarian signal,” with Bitcoin posting positive 90-day returns roughly 65% of the time following sustained hash rate declines.

Weekly Chart and Moving Averages

Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights why the boring range matters heading into 2026. As of December, BTC consolidated sideways while holding above its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA) support. As long as price holds near this zone, the broader uptrend structure remains intact, even if momentum stays muted. In that case, BTC could rebound toward its 50-week EMA at around the $97,000-98,000 zone. However, a sustained break below the 100-week EMA would raise risks of deeper pullbacks toward the 200-week EMA at around the $67,500-66,000 area.